Soybean futures hovered just below $1,160 per bushel, moving sideways near multi-week lows as traders weighed a reduced US yield outlook against expectations for a record harvest. The USDA trimmed its 2026 soybean yield forecast to 52.7 bushels per acre from 53, citing the effects of extreme heat and dryness across parts of the Midwest.
Even so, increased planted acreage lifted projected output by 44 million bushels to a record 4.519 billion bushels, up 6% from 2025 and surpassing the previous record set in 2021. The larger crop also pushed projected 2026/27 ending stocks up to 320 million bushels, from a prior estimate of 310 million.
Recent heat and dryness have offered some support to prices, but forecasts for cooler temperatures and ample rainfall in August and September could improve yield prospects. On the demand side, China provided fresh support, with the USDA confirming a sale of 244,000 metric tons of US soybeans for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year.
