Oil is on the rise! Its growth is fueled by threats of retaliatory tariffs from US President Donald Trump.
On February 14, oil prices surged as the market reacted to Trump’s orders regarding potential counter-tariffs for US trading partners. As a result, April Brent crude futures traded at $75.42 per barrel, up 0.52%. Meanwhile, WTI light crude stood at $71.60 per barrel, gaining 0.41%.
Trump has signed an order imposing new tariffs on a country-by-country basis. This process could take weeks or months, but it raises the risk of escalating trade tensions. In March, tariffs on crude oil from Canada and Mexico, as well as duties on steel, will come into effect.
Oil prices might see a slight increase this week. Experts predict a small uptick in crude prices for the first time since mid-January when US sanctions tightened restrictions on Russian oil flows. However, Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin may negotiate an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If that happens, supply risks could ease.
On the other hand, if trade tensions escalate more, especially with new tariffs or retaliatory measures, global economic growth could suffer. In such a scenario, oil demand would also decline. Against this backdrop, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its expectations for the global oil surplus in 2025.
