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Montag, 25 Januar
2021-01-25
Ifo Business Climate Index (Jan)

The Ifo Business Climate Index is a closely followed leading indicator for economic activity in Germany prepared by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research in Munich. It is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses of firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as "good", "satisfactorily" or "poor" and their business expectations for the next six months as "more favourable", "unchanged" or "more unfavourable". The replies are weighted according to the importance of the industry and aggregated. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference of the percentages of the responses "good" and "poor", the balance value of the expectations is the difference of the percentages of the responses "more favourable" and "more unfavourable". The business climate is a mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations.

Vorherig
92.1
Prognose
91.5
Aktuell
-
2021-01-25
Ifo Current Assessment (Jan)

One of the country's key business sentiment surveys (Ifo - Information and Forschung Survey). The survey is conducted monthly, querying German firms on the current German business climate as well as their expectations for the next six months. As the largest economy in the Eurozone, Germany is responsible for approximately a quarter of the total Eurozone GDP.

Consequently, the German Ifo is a significant economic health indicator for the Eurozone as a whole. Positive readings bode well for the economy, suggesting increased consumer spending and economic growth. Conversely, low Ifo readings may be indicative of economic slowdown.

The index uses 100 as a centerline between positive and negative outlooks; the further the value is from 100 the stronger the sentiment. The survey presents two equally weighted sub-indices: Current Assessment and Business Expectations.

Ifo Current Assessment
Measures current German business conditions, without considering future expectations.

Vorherig
91.3
Prognose
90.7
Aktuell
-
2021-01-25
IFO - Expectations (Jan)

One of the country's key business sentiment surveys (Ifo - Information and Forschung Survey). The survey is conducted monthly, querying German firms on the current German business climate as well as their expectations for the next six months. As the largest economy in the Eurozone, Germany is responsible for approximately a quarter of the total Eurozone GDP. Consequently, the German Ifo is a significant economic health indicator for the Eurozone as a whole. Positive readings bode well for the economy, suggesting increased consumer spending and economic growth. Conversely, low Ifo readings may be indicative of economic slowdown.

The index uses 100 as a centerline between positive and negative outlooks; the further the value is from 100 the stronger the sentiment. The survey presents two equally weighted sub-indices: Current Assessment and Business Expectations.

Ifo Expectations
Based on firms' expectations for the next six months, where firms rate the future outlook as better, same, or worse.

Vorherig
92.8
Prognose
93.2
Aktuell
-
2021-01-25
Leading indicators (Dec)

Movements in these indicators are known to precede larger developments in the rest of the economy.

The Index includes account inventory ratios, machinery orders, stock prices and other leading economic indicators. As the aggregate of many leading indices the Leading Economic Index provides a forecast of the future state of the domestic economy and is thought to predict activity that will occur 6-9 months after the reporting period.

The index operates on a 1-100 scale, where a value lower than 50 means that most indictors are negative and a value higher than 50 means most indicators are positive. In both cases a greater distance from the midpoint (50) means that the indicators are more strongly positive or negative.

Vorherig
160.6;
1.2%
Prognose
-
Aktuell
-
2021-01-25
NBB Business Climate (Jan)

Assesses overall business environment in a country.

Vorherig
-8.4
Prognose
-8.0
Aktuell
-
2021-01-25
ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks

Jens Weidmann is a German economist and president of the Deutsche Bundesbank.Statements of the German representatives always attracts attention as their opinion is very ponderable.

Vorherig
-
Prognose
-
Aktuell
-
2021-01-25
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Dec)

The Bank of Japan publishes the summary from its monthly monetary policy meetings some time after the actual meeting. These meetings are held to review economic developments inside and outside of Japan and decide the central bank’s monetary policy. The minutes usually come out late, at least a month after the meeting, but give detailed insight into the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision making process.

Vorherig
-
Prognose
-
Aktuell
-
2021-01-25
Corporate Service Price Index (Dec)

Change in the price of services purchased by corporations. It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when corporations pay more for services the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.

Vorherig
-0.6%
Prognose
-0.6%
Aktuell
-
Dienstag, 26 Januar
2021-01-26
Credit Card Spending (Dec)

Shows a change in the total expenditure made via credit cards.

Vorherig
0.1% m/m;
-5.6% y/y
Prognose
-
Aktuell
-
2021-01-26
BOJ Core CPI (Dec)

Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

Vorherig
-0.1%
Prognose
-
Aktuell
-
2021-01-26
Claimant Count Change (Dec)

The UK claimant count provides data on those individuals who are out of work and who are claiming some sort of unemployment benefit.

Vorherig
64.3K
Prognose
-
Aktuell
-
2021-01-26
Claimant Count Rate (Nov)

The Claimant Count is the UK's most timely measure of unemployment. The report measures the number of people who claim unemployment benefits, but actively seeking work. The Claimant Count serves as a barometer for the health of the UK labor market. Higher job growth accompanies economic expansion and could spark inflationary pressures.

The headline number is a percentage change in the figure.

Vorherig
4.9%
Prognose
5.1%
Aktuell
-
2021-01-26
Average Earnings Index (Nov)

It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when businesses pay more for labor the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.

Data represents the 3-month moving average compared to the same period a year earlier. A figure that excludes bonuses is also released, but not included for lack of significance. Source changed series calculation formula as of Jan 2010

Vorherig
2.7% 3m/y;
2.8% 3m/y
Prognose
3.0% 3m/y;
3.0% 3m/y
Aktuell
-
2021-01-26
30-y Bond Auction (Jan)

Yields are set by bond market investors, and therefore they can be used to decipher investors' outlook on future interest rates. The bid-to-cover ratio represents bond market liquidity and demand, which can be used to gauge investor confidence.

Vorherig
0.889%;
2.89
Prognose
-
Aktuell
-
2021-01-26
CBI retail sales volume balance (Jan)

Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed retailers and wholesalers: above 0 indicates higher sales volume, below indicates lower. This is a survey of about 160 retail and wholesale companies which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current sales volume. It's a leading indicator of consumer spending because retailer and wholesaler sales are directly influenced by consumer buying levels.
 

Vorherig
-3
Prognose
-
Aktuell
-
2021-01-26
House Price Index (Nov)

A resumptive index of house prices reflecting prices for new constructions and resale real estate markets. As all indices connected with the construction industry it can be seasonally adjusted.

Vorherig
1.5%
Prognose
0.6%
Aktuell
-
2021-01-26
Case-Shiller 20 City (Nov)

The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are the leading measures of U.S. residential real estate prices, tracking changes in the value of residential real estate both nationally as well as in 20 metropolitan regions.

Vorherig
7.9%
Prognose
8.3%
Aktuell
-
2021-01-26
Consumer Confidence (Jan)

Assessment of consumer sentiment regarding business conditions, employment and personal income. Based on a representative sample of thousands of mail-in surveys, the Conference Board index has the largest pooling sample of any US measure of consumer confidence. Consumer Confidence levels are generally linked with consumer spending. For instance, when consumer confidence is on the rise consumer spending tends to increase. Low or falling consumer confidence on the other hand is typically associated with decreased spending and consumer demand.

Some analysts criticize the Consumer Confidence figure for its volatile tendencies and weak connection to household expenditure, turning instead to the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence numbers. The volatility of the Consumer Confidence figure is attributed to two factors: its pooling size and the survey time frame focus. The Conference Board surveys an entirely new group of people each month, resulting in more erratic month to month figures. Additionally, the survey queries respondents on expectations for the following six months, a relatively short term evaluation. Conversely, the University of Michigan survey will re-poll many individuals and focuses on expectations for the next one to five years. The long term focus has a stabilizing effect on consumer confidence.

Survey results are printed in the headlines where 100 reflects a recent base year.

Vorherig
88.6
Prognose
88.9
Aktuell
-
2021-01-26
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan)

Assesses regional manufacturing conditions for the Richmond Fed District. Based on mail-in surveys from a representative sample of manufacturing plants, the Richmond Fed Index seeks to track industrial performance. The report puts particular emphasis on inflationary pressures.

Though the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey is valued for its quick turnaround, it is still released after the ISM survey. As a result, the figure is often used to affirm or question the ISM report, and has little impact on markets. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey also asks manufacturing executives to stress price expectations. Some markets participants use this data as an early gauge to CPI and PPI reports released a few days later.

The headline figure is a three-month average, calculated by finding the percentage difference between positive and negative responses for the last three months, using a zero boom/bust centerline.

Note: The survey covers such topics as shipments, order volume, backlog volume, capacity utilization, vendor lead time, employees, average workweek, wages, inventory levels, and capital expenditures. The Fifth District includes the District of Columbia , Maryland , both Carolinas, and most of the Virginias.

Vorherig
19
Prognose
22
Aktuell
-
2021-01-26
MI Leading Index (Dec)

A leading indicator for Australian economic activity calculated by Melbourne Institute.

Vorherig
0.5%
Prognose
-
Aktuell
-
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