Analysts have come to some interesting conclusions about the influence of so-called mutual tariffs on the US economy! Experts believe the effect will be moderate. Could a disaster really be avoided?
The administration of US President Donald Trump has introduced the Fair and Reciprocal Tariff Plan, which aligns more with policy expectations rather than immediate practical measures.
The plan calls for government agencies to develop specific tariff proposals. By April 1, 2025, reports on tariff and non-tariff barriers in other countries are expected. After that, the US Trade Representative (USTR) and the Department of Commerce will launch investigations.
The Trump administration is paying particular attention to non-tariff barriers, especially the value-added tax (VAT). Washington has previously hinted at potential tariffs on specific products, such as EU cars, Brazilian ethanol, and Indian motorcycles. Despite this, the overall impact on the US key trading partners may be limited due to existing free trade agreements and countermeasures.
Currency strategists at Wolfe Research are relatively optimistic about the economic impact of these mutual tariffs. They predict only a slight dip in GDP and a minor rise in inflation once the tariffs are introduced.
According to Wolfe Research experts, the extent of the impact will depend on whether tariffs are applied at the country level or on specific products. At this point, it is difficult to make precise forecasts.
Previously, Wolfe Research did not rule out the possibility of significant tariff hikes for some US trading partners. In such a scenario, the negative effects on the American economy could be much stronger.
