According to analysts at Capital Economics, China's long-standing status as the leader among emerging markets is approaching its conclusion. Since 2000, China's economy has grown faster than its competitors, except for a brief dip during the pandemic. However, the think tank predicts that China's economic growth will be below the average for emerging markets in the coming years, despite official data.
The main reasons for this slowdown are fading momentum in the construction and infrastructure sectors and a rising government debt. China's GDP growth is expected to decelerate to nearly 2% by 2030. This will lead to a sharp decline in demand for commodities, which will derail the developing economies like South Africa and Brazil, as well as overshadow the outlook for Persian Gulf nations due to the adverse effects on oil prices.
All in all, China is no longer acknowledged as an undisputed leader among emerging markets. In turn, this change will leave its imprint on the global economy and many commodity-exporting nations.
