The European Commission has revised its GDP growth forecast for the EU in 2025, increasing it to 1.4% from the previous estimate of 1.1%. For 2026, the projection has been slightly downgraded from 1.5% to 1.4%. Inflation in the EU is expected to hover around 2.5% in 2025 and approximately 2.1% in 2026. Within the eurozone, GDP growth is anticipated to be 1.3% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026.
The European economy has demonstrated robust performance over the first nine months of the year, with export growth and investment in equipment surpassing expectations. This resilience illustrates the economy’s ability to adapt to current challenges, and growth is expected to continue in the coming months.
A country-by-country analysis reveals that Germany is expected to experience slower growth, expanding by only 0.2% in 2025 before accelerating to 1.2% in both 2026 and 2027. France is projected to expand between 0.7% and 1.1%, while Italy is expected to grow by 0.4%, followed by an increase to 0.8% in subsequent years. Meanwhile, Spain is set to lead with growth rates ranging from 2% to 2.9%.
Unemployment in the EU is anticipated to remain steady at around 5.9% in 2025 and 2026, with a slight decline expected thereafter. In the eurozone, unemployment is projected to decrease from 6.4% to 6.1% by 2027. The budget deficit is forecast to rise to between 3.3% and 3.4% of GDP, while public debt is expected to reach 85% of GDP in the EU and 91% in the eurozone by 2027.
