The artificial intelligence boom has left a noticeable mark on the US stock market. However, according to analysts at Capital Economics, it has not yet translated into the economic leap that enthusiasts anticipated. Productivity gains remain concentrated within a narrow technology segment, making the path to a “decade of miracles” seem much longer than optimists had anticipated.
Analysts point out that the impact of AI is now evident not only in stock prices but also in macroeconomic data. The ICT sector, spanning computer hardware, software, and data centers, contributed nearly 0.9% to US GDP growth in the first half of 2025, nearly double the average pace of the last decade. This acceleration is largely tied to investments in AI, with spending on equipment and data centers rising by nearly 40% year-over-year and software investments adding about 0.5% to annual growth.
However, outside the tech core, the overall picture remains modest. A significant productivity breakthrough has yet to be observed in major sectors. Companies report expanding AI adoption, but actual implementation levels remain below 15% in non-ICT industries.
Furthermore, the tech sector is not generating more jobs. In fact, layoffs are outpacing hiring. This reflects rising productivity within the industry but not across the broader economy.
An increase in output amid declining employment in the ICT sector does indicate a localized boom tied to AI, especially considering that overall job growth in the United States has fallen below 50,000 per month.
Lower prices for tech goods and services have also played a role, deducting approximately 0.5% from the GDP deflator. However, outside the technology sector, inflationary trends have remained largely unchanged, indicating that the effects of AI have yet to permeate the entire economy.
Capital Economics warns that a significant portion of the recent productivity growth may simply be a cyclical reaction to post-pandemic labor market tensions, rather than a result of profound structural changes driven by AI. The true test will come when these technologies start to penetrate larger, less digitized service sectors that comprise about 40% of US GDP.
Despite robust investment growth and optimism on Wall Street, analysts believe that the United States is still in the early stages of the AI boom. While two quarters of accelerated growth appear impressive, it is insufficient to declare a “decade of miracles” officially underway. Currently, AI’s contribution to US growth remains early, localized, and largely confined to the technology sector, with its broader economic impact still classified as “pending.”
