Bank of America forecasts that the Trump administration will adopt a more market-friendly stance by 2026, reducing trade tensions and accelerating deregulation as the midterm elections approach. Although risks will remain elevated, the primary source of uncertainty this year is expected to gradually diminish. Many factors influencing the year 2025, such as tariff shocks and political unpredictability, are likely to take on a more moderate form.
The bank highlights signs of a shifting approach within the US administration. A twelve-month truce agreement between the United States and China and the anticipated Supreme Court ruling on international economic powers are seen as signals of de-escalation. Negotiations surrounding the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) are also expected to create a more favorable business environment. The electoral cycle prompts the administration to minimize the negative impact on corporate planning and global supply chains.
This reduction in uncertainty has influenced analyst forecasts. BofA has revised its global growth projections to 3.3% for 2026 and 3.4% for 2027, driven by improvements in US-China relations and fiscal stimulus measures. A stable political backdrop diminishes the risk of a K-shaped consumption dynamic triggered by artificial intelligence, excess liquidity, and uneven wealth effects.
However, the bank acknowledges ongoing structural risks, including tightening global liquidity, increased budget deficits, and supply chain pressures related to the AI cycle. The US economy is positioned to benefit from favorable trade conditions, sustained investment in AI, and improved financial conditions bolstered by excess liquidity.
