Analysts at Deutsche Bank forecast a stabilization of the American economy by 2026 following a period of turbulence. Experts led by Matthew Luzzetti underscore the easing of negative factors such as trade policy uncertainty and the strengthening of positive drivers—namely, tax cuts and reduced tariffs as part of President Trump’s budget program. They expect US GDP growth to accelerate to 2.4% next year and remain in the range of 2.00-2.25% in 2027-2028.
The stabilization of the economic environment should support the labor market in the second half of 2026, reducing unemployment from its peak level of 4.5%. However, analysts warn of the vulnerability of employment to risks posed by the mass implementation of artificial intelligence. Inflation is expected to slow down but will remain above the Fed's target level of 2% due to the resilience of the economy and supply shocks. This may encourage the regulator to keep interest rates at their current level at the beginning of 2026.
The Federal Reserve is likely to resume rate cuts in September of next year, following the replacement of Chair Jerome Powell with a candidate who has more dovish views. Despite the constructive outlook, Deutsche Bank sees heightened risks of a recession, uncertainty regarding the impact of AI on productivity and employment, as well as potential market concerns about the Fed's independence and the financial stability of the US.
