OPEC+ has confirmed its decision to suspend the planned increase in oil production scheduled for early 2026, signaling that key producers prefer a cautious approach rather than aggressively flooding the market with additional supply. A virtual meeting of the eight member countries—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—was held on November 30, nearly two years after they announced a series of voluntary cuts in 2023.
On November 2, OPEC+ participants reaffirmed their commitment to delaying production increases in January, February, and March 2026, citing seasonal factors formally, while informally indicating a reluctance to rush into easing supply controls. They estimate that up to 1.65 million barrels per day could return to the market, either partially or fully. However, this would only occur if market conditions improve and the production recovery appears sustainable.
The countries emphasized their full flexibility to pause, modify, or cancel additional voluntary adjustments, including the previously announced 2.2 million barrels per day cuts for 2023. This approach reflects a strategy of “no sudden moves,” especially when dealing with high demand volatility and geopolitical risks.
Participants also reiterated their commitment to the Declaration of Cooperation and their obligations to fully comply with established quotas. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) will continue to monitor compliance and oversee any compensation for overproduction, with countries promising to address any surpluses starting January 2024.
OPEC+ will maintain a schedule of monthly meetings to evaluate market conditions, monitor the implementation of agreements, and adjust its strategy as needed. The next, eighth meeting is scheduled for January 4, 2026, indicating that producers clearly aim to keep the market vigilant while retaining the right to change course as swiftly as the oil landscape evolves.
