Venezuela’s future remains uncertain after a US operation earlier this month removed the country’s leader, Nicolas Maduro, from power. Analysts are assessing the potential effects of the events in the oil market and financial assets.
US President Donald Trump said Washington, together with major American energy companies, could take control of a significant portion of Venezuela’s oil reserves, possibly for an extended period. In recent days, US authorities also detained two tankers linked to Venezuela in the Atlantic Ocean, a move markets interpreted as a signal that the White House seeks to control oil flows from the country.
Trump also said Venezuela had agreed to export up to 50 million barrels of oil to the United States, which could imply a halt to shipments to China, the country’s largest buyer and main creditor. Currently, about 30% of Venezuelan oil is delivered to Chinese state companies as part of debt‑repayment programs.
Since 2007, China has provided Venezuela with loans estimated by analysts at as much as $60 billion, collateralized by future oil deliveries. Against the backdrop of recent events, Chinese firms operating in Venezuela are consulting with Beijing on next steps.
Barclays analysts described Maduro’s removal as a trigger for a political and oil reset in the Venezuelan sector. Sources close to the White House say the United States could selectively ease sanctions to allow oil to be transported and sold in global markets. Under that approach, sales proceeds would be routed to accounts under US control and released back to Venezuela at Washington’s discretion.
Barclays estimates that, if sanctions are relaxed and Venezuela gains access to multilateral financing, the economy could begin to recover. A low base of comparison creates potential for double‑digit GDP growth, the bank says, and for oil production to rise by about 200,000–300,000 barrels per day in 2026 from the current level of roughly 1 million barrels per day.
Analysts stress, however, that the durability of any recovery will depend directly on the form and stability of the political transition. Despite Maduro’s removal, representatives of his socialist camp remain in positions of authority, and former Vice‑President Delcy Rodriguez has assumed the role of interim leader.
Reports indicate Rodriguez is under pressure to comply with US demands as the White House seeks to secure stability in Venezuela without insisting on an immediate democratic transition. Barclays cautions that the recent events close one chapter in Venezuela’s history and open the path to a political transition that markets are likely to view positively. The bank also warns that the process remains fragile and that it will most likely be long and complex.
