The S&P 500 index could finish 2026 even higher, posting a fourth consecutive bullish year despite mixed short-term signals, analysts say.
In a research note, a reputable think tank stated that there are strong grounds for a fourth consecutive positive year, citing its updated forecast for 2026. Analysts believe the end of 2025 created a favorable backdrop for the coming year, thanks to strengthening macroeconomic conditions.
Canaccord expects economic growth to accelerate moderately in 2026, inflation to remain under control, and the rate-cutting cycle to continue. Under these conditions, analysts reckon the odds are high that the S&P 500 is on track for a confident rise for a fourth straight year.
From a macroeconomic viewpoint, experts note that political instability in Venezuela could become an economic stimulus provided that the country with estimated reserves of around 300 billion barrels ramps up its oil supplies. Analysts also point to a slowly recovering housing market as an additional disinflationary factor that could restrain price growth in 2026.
Canaccord says earnings and economic forecasts also leave room for positive surprises. The firm notes that macro expectations at the start of the year tend to be conservative. The current consensus assumes 2% real GDP growth and 2.8% CPI inflation.
At the same time, tactical indicators send mixed signals. Canaccord’s faster indicators are in neutral territory, while the weekly stochastic and the NAAIM Exposure Index remain in overbought and elevated-optimism zones, indicating possible short-term volatility.
Taken together, these factors suggest the market’s path in 2026 may be uneven, but the overall bullish momentum, according to Canaccord Genuity, remains intact.
