On March 19, 2026, Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi announced the return of a direct threat of a recession for the American economy. According to the agency's assessment, the persistence of high energy prices over the coming weeks would make an economic downturn in the United States nearly inevitable.
Macroeconomic prospects are worsening amid the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic. "Recession is once again a serious threat," Mark Zandi said, adding, "Every recession since WWII, save the pandemic recession, has been preceded by a spike in oil prices."
Prior to the onset of the military conflict with Iran, the agency's leading indicators suggested a 49% probability of a recession within a year. The current analytical model now assesses this risk at over 50% due to the negative impact of commodity prices on consumer purchasing power and inflation expectations.
The situation is further complicated by a slowdown in GDP growth, which was just 0.7% in the fourth quarter. Weak labor market performance and declining real household incomes undermine the resilience of the world's largest economy to external shocks from Middle Eastern destabilization.
Despite high domestic production levels, the American industry remains sensitive to global market volatility. The previous tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve has already constrained growth potential, depriving the financial system of the necessary reserves to adapt to the new energy crisis.
