The International Monetary Fund left its forecast for global GDP growth in 2027 unchanged at 3.4% while upgrading its 2026 estimate to 3.1%. In the World Economic Outlook released at a Bangkok session, the fund stressed that the global system is under mounting pressure. Key challenges include the Middle East conflict, record public debt, and higher borrowing costs. However, a wave of investment in artificial intelligence has helped partially offset the negative impact of rising energy prices.
AI‑infrastructure investment has been a principal driver of the upswing, supporting the economies of advanced countries and key microelectronics suppliers such as South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, and Thailand. Growth is becoming increasingly concentrated: 95% of global momentum is now generated by just 32 countries, down from 54 in the spring, and nearly half of economies saw their forecasts revised down. The IMF warned that if financial returns from AI deployment prove weak, the market could face a sharp asset correction, whereas successful integration of neural network technologies could add 0.6 percentage points to global GDP by 2029.
A key risk remains the oil market amid tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, which the baseline scenario assumes will reopen only in spring 2027. The average price of oil in 2026 is projected at $96 a barrel, and under a downside scenario in which prices jump to $130, global growth may lose up to 0.5 percentage points while inflation accelerates to 5.2%. The fund stressed that depleted fiscal buffers and massive debts leave governments little room for maneuver and called on authorities to undertake immediate fiscal consolidation.
