Crude prices could rise to $75 a barrel by 2020 on condition that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) slashes its oil supplies by 7 million barrels per day. This scenario of OPEC’s strategy is suggested by the International Monetary Fund. Under this condition, OPEC’s market share will contract to 35% from 42%, held nowadays.
The IMF analyzed the cartel’s strategy since 2014 and made a statement. The IMF concluded that OPEC’s struggle for keeping its market share and “pump-and-dump” policy for US shale producers is unlikely to ensure balance in the global market. Experts noted that the satisfactory solution for OPEC would be to reduce oil output.
Importantly, the IMF assumes in case OPEC maintains its market share and production rates, oil prices are to climb to $58 a barrel by 2020.
