A sharp rise in the Chinese economy after the virus-induced crisis could be a short-lived phenomenon. Firstly, such forecasts were unveiled by independent experts. Some time later, even China’s authorities began to worry about the future economic situation.
Li Kuiwen, customs spokesman, supposes that “last year’s high base poses challenges for trade in the second quarter”. This, in turn, may affect the whole economy. In other words, the targeted level is so high that it is hardly possible to reach. According to the results of 2020, China’s exports showed a record rise of 3.6% compared to the GDP growth of 2.3%. This was possible due to the fact that China began recovering after the coronavirus pandemic and lifting restrictions earlier than other countries. This year, the country will hardly show such a performance as demand for protective masks and other disinfectants is significantly lower. Notably, in 2020, these products accounted for a better part of exports. That is why more and more analysts foresee difficulties in the Chinese economy in the near future. Analysts emphasize that the economic reopening in most countries will lead to a jump in local demand, whereas demand for Chinese goods will fall. In April, China’s exports may slide by 10-15% year-over-year.
