The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised its economic growth outlook for developing Asia, noting a positive trend driven by robust export growth and strong domestic demand in the first quarter.
According to the Asian Development Outlook report published on Wednesday, the ADB now anticipates the region to expand by 5.0 percent in 2024, slightly up from its previous estimate of 4.9 percent. The growth forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at 4.9 percent.
However, the ADB warned of persistent downside risks to this outlook, including heightened geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, and uncertainties linked to upcoming elections in major economies.
The growth projection for East Asia in 2024 has been revised upward to 4.6 percent, fueled by strong exports of semiconductors and other goods, spurred by the artificial intelligence boom. The 2025 forecast for the region remains at 4.2 percent.
China’s growth estimates for 2024 and 2025 also remain unchanged, with an expected growth rate of 4.8 percent for this year and 4.5 percent for 2025. This forecast is underpinned by a recovery in services consumption and robust exports, despite the continued downturn in the property market.
Additionally, Southeast Asia’s growth forecasts are steady at 4.6 percent for this year and 4.7 percent for 2025. The Pacific region’s growth is projected to be 3.3 percent in 2024 and 4.0 percent in 2025.
South Asia is projected to grow at a rate of 6.3 percent this year, although the 2025 forecast has been slightly reduced to 6.5 percent.
Specifically, the ADB maintains that the Indian economy is on track to achieve a growth rate of 7.0 percent in FY2024 and 7.2 percent in FY2025, consistent with its April projections.
Regarding inflation, the ADB forecasts that headline inflation in developing Asia will ease from 3.3 percent in 2023 to 2.9 percent this year, and stabilize at 3.0 percent in 2025.
