Malaysian palm oil futures have fallen below MYR 4,450 per tonne after experiencing modest gains in the previous session. This decline is largely influenced by losses in competing oils on the Chicago market, which were triggered by a U.S. biofuels proposal that left traders unsatisfied. Market sentiment remains cautious, particularly given the shortened trading week and the anticipation of Malaysia’s trade data for August, expected to be released shortly.
Last week's industry data indicates that end-August inventories rose by 4.2%, reaching a total of 2.2 million tonnes. However, a more significant downturn was curbed by strong demand from India, the leading importer. In August, India's palm oil imports rose by 15.8% over July, totaling 990,528 tonnes—the highest level in over a year. This increase was driven by competitive pricing compared to soyoil, prompting refiners to build stock ahead of the mid-October festive season, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India. The association forecasts imports to remain above 800,000 tonnes in September.
As for export forecasts, the estimates present a mixed picture. Intertek reports a 2.6% increase in shipments from September 1–15, whereas AmSpec notes a slight decrease of 0.1%.
