FX.co ★ US 10-Year Yield Steady at 3-Week High

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note remained near 4.1% on Monday, marking three-week highs as investors turned their attention to key US data that could influence the economic and interest rate forecast. The ongoing US government shutdown has postponed the release of major reports like the monthly jobs data. However, investors can expect guidance this week from private sources such as ADP employment figures, ISM PMIs, and Michigan sentiment reports. Last week, the Federal Reserve implemented an anticipated 25 basis point interest rate cut. Nevertheless, Chair Powell indicated that a further reduction in December is not guaranteed. Presently, markets estimate approximately a 67% likelihood of a December rate cut, a decrease from over 90% before the recent meeting. In the meantime, the White House revealed that China would be halting new export restrictions on rare earths and ceasing investigations into US semiconductor companies. This is in return for the US pausing certain tariffs and canceling a proposed 100% duty on Chinese exports. This development follows the Trump-Xi summit last week, which focused on stabilizing bilateral relations.