FX.co ★ US 10-Year Yield Holds Advance

On Friday, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note remained above 4.1%, following a significant increase in the previous session. This comes as investors tempered their anticipations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December. The probability of a 25 basis point reduction next month has fallen to approximately 50%, a sharp decrease from the over 95% likelihood estimated a month earlier. This shift is set against a backdrop of inflation uncertainty and divergent perspectives among Federal Reserve policymakers on the economic and monetary outlook. The US government resumed operations this week, which enabled the release of numerous delayed economic reports. However, the White House highlighted that some October data might remain unpublished due to collection disruptions during the shutdown. There is rising concern that forthcoming reports may indicate a possible economic downturn. The Treasury market selloff coincided with declines in both US stocks and the dollar, signaling diminished confidence in American assets amid the escalating uncertainty.