FX.co ★ US 10-Year Yield Holds Advance

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note remained steady at approximately 4.15% on Monday, following two consecutive sessions of increases. This stability comes as investors have moderated their expectations for an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Several officials from the Fed have expressed doubts about the necessity of a December cut, with some completely opposing it. Currently, markets are estimating about a 46% likelihood of a 25 basis points reduction next month, a considerable drop from around 88% probability a month earlier. Investors are also anticipating a series of US economic data, delayed due to the recent government shutdown, to provide direction for Fed policy decisions. The much-anticipated September jobs report is scheduled for Thursday, with markets also awaiting rescheduled announcements for other economic indicators. Notable private sector updates this week include preliminary S&P PMIs, existing home sales data, the NAHB housing index, and the weekly ADP employment figures.