FX.co ★ US Natgas Prices Rebound on Colder Forecasts

U.S. natural gas futures are once again approaching $4.5 per MMBtu, influenced by forecasts that suggest colder temperatures are on the horizon as we move into early December. After experiencing a series of warmer forecast adjustments, the latest predictions from the European weather model have increased the expected heating demand for late November and early December, thus stimulating buying activity. Weather continues to be a major variable for the winter season, with some long-range projections still suggesting a colder winter ahead. NatGasWeather remarked that while earlier models reduced demand projections for early December, the update released on Tuesday afternoon has partially reversed this trend. Additional support for price increases stems from anticipation of the season's first storage withdrawal following last week's cold weather, preceding the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) report due on Thursday. On the production side, U.S. output remains robust: average output from the Lower 48 states has reached 109.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in November, surpassing October levels and nearing historical highs, which maintains inventories about 4% above the norm. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) feedgas demand remains strong, with flows to U.S. export facilities averaging 18 bcfd in November to date, up from a record 16.7 bcfd in October.