FX.co ★ US 10-Year Yield Falls to 1-Month Low

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note declined to 4.02% just before the Thanksgiving holiday, marking its lowest point in nearly a month. This shift mirrored movements across the yield curve, driven by anticipation that the Federal Reserve will implement a 25 basis point rate cut in December. Meanwhile, recent delayed data from the US indicated retail sales in September increased less than forecasted, suggesting potential weakness in consumer spending. Additionally, while producer prices rose as anticipated, the services segment of the index—closely observed by hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials—continued to decrease since August. This occurred following statements from FOMC Governor Waller and New York Fed President Williams, both of whom expressed support for an interest rate reduction in the Fed's final decision of the year. Such dovish commentary led to a shift in rate market expectations, from anticipating a hold to a consensus for a rate cut at the month's end.