FX.co ★ US PCE Inflation Forecast to Stay Broadly Steady

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index in the United States is anticipated to grow by 0.3% for September 2025 on a month-to-month basis, maintaining the same rate observed in August. Meanwhile, the core PCE, which excludes volatile categories such as food and energy, is expected to increase by 0.2%, consistent with the figures reported in the preceding two months. Annually, the headline PCE inflation is projected to rise slightly to 2.8%, marking its highest level since April 2024, up from 2.7% in August. Conversely, core PCE inflation is anticipated to remain unchanged at 2.9%. The Federal Reserve continues to use the PCE index as its favored measure for gauging inflation. Notably, the publication of the September data was postponed by more than a month due to a government shutdown.