FX.co ★ US 10-Year Treasury Yield Rises to Over 2-Month High

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury has climbed towards 4.2%, marking its highest point since the end of September. This increase comes in light of stronger-than-anticipated labor market data, which introduces uncertainty into the Federal Reserve's policy decisions. In October, job openings rose by 12,000 to 7.670 million, building on a significant jump of 431,000 in September to 7.658 million, both months exceeding the forecast of 7.2 million. Concurrently, the weekly ADP report indicates that the US private sector added an average of 4,750 jobs per week for the four weeks ending November 22, recovering following three successive periods of job declines. Current market predictions suggest an 87% likelihood of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut, up from about 67% the previous month; however, the policy outlook beyond 2026 remains ambiguous. Analysts predict a "hawkish cut," where Chair Jerome Powell is expected to express caution regarding further easing due to persistent inflationary pressures.