FX.co ★ Soybean Futures Slip on Ample South American Supplies

Soybean futures declined to $10.50 per bushel due to a surplus in global supplies impacting market dynamics. In Brazil, 98% of the soybean crop for the 2025/26 season has been planted, prompting consultancy AgRural to increase its production estimate from 178.5 million tons in November to 180.4 million tons, aided by favorable rainfall supporting crop conditions. In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange noted that as of December 23, 75.5% of the soybean crop for 2025/26 had been planted, an increase from 67.3% the previous week, with 95.2% of the crops rated from normal to excellent. Meanwhile, brokerage StoneX reported that China has purchased over 8 million tons of American soybeans, contrasting with the lower figures in official USDA reports. As 2025 concludes, soybean prices have risen approximately 7%, driven by strong demand, especially for biodiesel production in Brazil, while global competition has kept U.S. prices relatively stable. Uncertainty stemming from the US-China tariff dispute has affected Chinese demand, although the situation was partially alleviated by a late-year purchasing commitment from Beijing.