FX.co ★ US Inflation Expectations Edge Higher

In December 2025, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations reported a rise in the median one-year-ahead inflation expectations in the United States to 3.4%, an increase from 3.2% recorded in the preceding two months. Conversely, inflation expectations for the three- and five-year horizons remained steady at 3.0%, indicating a stable outlook for long-term inflation. Though inflation uncertainty grew across all timeframes, reflecting a wider range of expectations for future prices, there was a notable decline in median year-ahead price expectations for key household expenses, including gas, food, medical care, college education, and rent. Additionally, the survey revealed a weakening sentiment in the labor market, with job-finding expectations dropping to a record low for the second time within a six-month period, accompanied by an increase in job-loss concerns. Despite these trends, projections for household income growth and consumer spending showed little change.