FX.co ★ TTF Prices Rebound from 3-Week Low

European natural gas futures experienced an upswing, approaching €35/MWh after touching a three-week low of €32.86 on February 3. This increase is largely attributed to reduced wind generation, which has elevated the demand for gas from power plants, thus tightening short-term supply. The northwest of Europe continues to suffer from weak wind output, leading to a greater dependence on gas for electricity production. Although current temperatures remain above normal and are expected to peak by Sunday, colder weather is anticipated from February 13, which could heighten the demand for heating. Persistently low storage levels are further supporting prices, with EU gas inventories currently at approximately 39.2% capacity, down from around 52% at the same time last year. Storage deficits are particularly pronounced in Germany at 30.2%, France at 29%, and the Netherlands at 23.5%. EU reserves are forecasted to drop to about 26% by the end of March, necessitating robust replenishment over the summer to achieve 90% capacity ahead of next winter. The anticipated increase in LNG arrivals this week may alleviate some of the pressure, and market participants are also closely monitoring the Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations for potential impacts on supply.