FX.co ★ US Inflation Rate Seen Little Changed in January

The US annual inflation rate likely slowed to 2.5% in January 2026, its lowest level since May and down from 2.7% recorded in each of the previous two months. This moderation is driven largely by base effects, as the higher readings from a year earlier drop out of the year-on-year comparison. On a monthly basis, the CPI is estimated to have risen by 0.3%, in line with December’s increase. Food and electricity prices are expected to have edged higher, while gasoline prices likely declined. There are also signs that core goods prices may have firmed, as firms may have used the start of the new calendar year to implement tariff-related price adjustments. Meanwhile, annual core inflation is projected to ease to 2.5%—its lowest level since March 2021—from 2.6% in the previous month. On a monthly basis, core CPI is expected to have risen by 0.3%, slightly above the 0.2% increase recorded in December.