FX.co ★ Wheat at 548.45USd/BU

Wheat futures traded around $5.50 per bushel on Friday, holding just below the three-month high of $5.525 reached on February 12, as improving supply prospects tempered the previous rally. An upswing initially fueled by weather concerns and optimism over export demand lost steam once clearer signs of rising global availability emerged. India’s move to reopen wheat exports with a 2.5 million-ton quota, combined with Argentina’s record harvest and robust shipment pace, has added fresh supply to an already well-stocked market. At the same time, USDA revisions lifted US ending stocks to their highest level since the 2019/20 season, while global inventories remain comfortable by recent standards, strengthening buyers’ negotiating position. Early February freezes caused only limited damage to US winter wheat, easing fears of a weather-driven shortfall and further constraining the market’s upward momentum.