The US PCE price index is projected to rise 0.3% month over month in December 2025. The core PCE index, which excludes food and energy, is also expected to increase by 0.3%, following gains of 0.2% for both measures in November. On an annual basis, overall PCE inflation is likely to hold steady at 2.8%, while the core rate is seen edging up to 2.9% from 2.8%.
The PCE price index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, and the December data are anticipated to show that the pace of disinflation has slowed, with price pressures remaining persistently above the Fed’s 2% target.
