US natural gas futures extended their rally on Monday, climbing nearly 6% to move above $3 per MMBtu, as rising tensions in the Middle East heightened fears of supply disruptions. The surge followed a series of US and Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent retaliatory attacks by Tehran on targets across the region. In response to the escalating conflict, QatarEnergy suspended LNG production at its Ras Laffan complex after military attacks in the area.
These developments have intensified earlier concerns about tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which has largely come to a standstill, with no clear timeline for a safe resumption of normal operations. While Tehran maintains that the waterway remains open, several shipping companies have begun diverting vessels away from the narrow chokepoint as a precaution. The Strait of Hormuz accounts for roughly 20% of global LNG trade, including substantial volumes from Qatar. Any sustained disruption could bolster demand for US LNG exports, especially given that the natural gas market is currently running a 0.3% deficit relative to its 5-year average.
