Nickel futures slipped to around $17,100 per tonne in early March, extending the previous session’s losses, as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East spurred risk-off sentiment across industrial metals. Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices sharply higher, bolstered the US dollar, and led investors to scale back exposure to cyclical commodities. Market participants remain cautious and highly sensitive to the deteriorating risk backdrop.
On the supply side, Indonesia’s 2026 ore quota cap of 270 million wet metric tons, together with stricter enforcement against illegal mining, continues to temper any significant tightening. At the same time, new project ramp-ups — including initial ore sales from PT Vale’s Pomalaa operation — point to stable feedstock availability. Firm ore offers from the Philippines are underpinning upstream costs, but the broader expansion in refined nickel production is capping the upside for prices.
