FX.co ★ US Nonfarm Payrolls Expected to Drop to 59K

The US economy is expected to have added 59K nonfarm payroll jobs in February 2026, a sharp slowdown from the robust 130K gain recorded in January. Part of this deceleration in hiring is likely tied to labor actions by the United Nurses Associations of California/Union of Health Care Professionals (UNAC/UHCP), which are estimated to involve roughly 31K striking workers. The report is also projected to show the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings are expected to increase 0.3% month-on-month, following a 0.4% rise in January, with annual wage growth seen at 3.7%, unchanged from the previous month.