Rice futures eased to about $11 per hundredweight, a two-week low, tracking broader weakness across grain markets. Global risk sentiment improved after President Donald Trump said the US had engaged in talks with Iran over a possible resolution to the conflict and had withdrawn his earlier 48-hour ultimatum, helping to steady financial and commodity markets.
The crisis in the Middle East has sharply increased insurance, freight, and fuel costs and disrupted key shipping routes, dealing a particular blow to leading Asian exporters, especially India. India’s rice trade has been hit hard, with exporters struggling to move cargoes, millers in major producing regions stuck with rising inventories, and financial pressures intensifying across the supply chain.
Meanwhile, the FAO, in its latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, raised its 2025/26 global rice production forecast by 1.7 million tonnes to 563.4 million tonnes (milled basis). This represents a 2.1% year-on-year increase and a new record high. Higher output in Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, and Indonesia is expected to more than offset production declines in Madagascar, Pakistan, Thailand, and the United States.
