The Canadian 10-year government bond yield slipped below 3.5% after briefly touching an eight-month high, as signs of diplomatic de-escalation between the United States and Iran sparked a rebound in global fixed-income markets. This move lower came in tandem with a broader retreat in global yields, following reports that Washington had drafted a 15‑point proposal and was seeking a one‑month ceasefire to help resolve the conflict.
At the same time, WTI crude oil futures fell sharply, easing recent stagflation concerns despite Tehran’s denial of direct negotiations. While Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr indicated that interest rates may need to remain elevated to counter persistent inflationary pressures, the drop in energy prices has led investors to reconsider the urgency of additional policy tightening by both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada.
On the domestic front, Canadian yields continue to be shaped by fiscal projections for 2026–27, which foresee $502.8 billion in federal spending. However, the recent improvement in global risk sentiment has, at least temporarily, reduced the supply-driven upward pressure on Canadian government bond yields.
