Iron ore futures held above CNY 810 per ton, trading largely sideways over the past two weeks as investors weighed supply disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict and the onset of Australia’s cyclone season. Geopolitical risks related to the Iran war have pushed up fuel and shipping costs, preserving a risk premium in iron ore prices. At the same time, supply concerns eased somewhat after Tropical Cyclone Narelle caused only minor disruptions at ports in Australia’s Pilbara region.
On the demand side, iron ore consumption in China has been constrained by production curbs in the steel sector, as authorities reiterated their commitment to reducing excess capacity in the face of slowing economic growth. Elsewhere, tensions persist between Australia’s BHP Group and state-owned China Mineral Resources Group over a supply contract for 2026, although Beijing has temporarily relaxed its import ban on BHP’s Jimblebar fines.
