US natural gas futures fell to $2.86 per MMBtu, their lowest level in more than a month, as the market moves into the spring shoulder season—a period that typically dampens heating demand and supports storage builds. Forecasts are calling for above-average temperatures across the eastern half of the country from late March into early April, and again around mid-month, which is expected to further curb gas consumption. As a result, traders anticipate that inventories will increase more quickly in the coming weeks, expanding from a modest surplus in mid-March to a more substantial surplus by mid-April.
Despite the recent pullback, natural gas prices still gained 0.9% in March, supported by strong LNG feedgas demand in the wake of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, US gasoline prices have climbed above $4 per gallon for the first time since August 2022, rising more than $1 per gallon since the onset of the Middle East war.
