The BusinessNZ Performance of Composite Index slipped to 48.8 in March 2026, down from a downwardly revised 50.1 in February, marking its lowest level since August. The loss of momentum reflected a sharp contraction in the services sector, its deepest in 10 months, alongside the weakest manufacturing expansion since November.
New orders, finished stocks, production, and employment all remained in expansionary territory, with new orders still leading overall activity despite easing from the previous month. Deliveries, meanwhile, were broadly stable.
“The PSI result was so weak that our combined PMI/PSI indicator is now signaling the economy could soon move into contraction. While we are not formally forecasting a recession, these figures do justify our recent decision to significantly downgrade our growth expectations for 2026,” said BNZ Head of Research Stephen Toplis.
