Soybean futures climbed to about $11.80 per bushel, a four-week high, driven by solid biofuel-related demand and fresh signals from the USDA’s latest monthly report. The agency raised its soybean crush forecast by 35 million bushels to a record 2.61 billion, the fifth consecutive annual high. However, this increase was fully offset by an equivalent 35-million-bushel cut in export projections to 1.54 billion, reflecting intensified competition from South America. As a result, US ending stocks were unchanged at 350 million bushels, roughly in line with market expectations.
On the global front, soybean inventories inched down to 124.79 million metric tons, while production estimates for Brazil and Argentina were left unchanged. At the same time, crude oil prices jumped after President Trump ordered a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, heightening concerns over supply disruptions and bolstering biodiesel demand. Expectations of stronger Chinese demand—the world’s largest soybean importer—also lent support to prices, with markets focused on a planned meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping in just over a month to discuss trade.
