The National Bank of Kazakhstan left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 18% on April 24, 2026, maintaining a tight monetary policy stance as inflation, though easing, remained elevated. Annual inflation slowed to 11% in March from 11.7% in February, while monthly inflation decelerated to 0.6% from 1.1%. This moderation was supported by restrictive monetary conditions, an appreciation of the tenge, a slowdown in consumer lending, and government anti-inflation measures.
Nonetheless, the central bank emphasized that inflationary pressures are still well above its 5% target, and inflation expectations remain high at 14.6%. The protracted conflict in the Middle East has also heightened risks of higher global prices for energy, food, and fertilizers.
The economy expanded by 3% in the first quarter, driven by robust activity in construction, transport, manufacturing, and trade. Policymakers indicated they may consider cutting rates at future meetings if current disinflationary trends persist, but underscored that additional evidence of durable, sustainable disinflation is required before easing policy.
