Futures tracking the S&P/TSX Composite Index slipped on Monday as stalled US–Iran peace talks dampened risk appetite ahead of a heavy calendar of central bank decisions, including the Bank of Canada. Oil prices climbed as restricted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz kept global supply tight.
The Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve will deliver policy decisions on Wednesday. While markets largely expect the BoC to leave rates unchanged, persistent geopolitical tensions, oil-related supply shocks, and growing fears of energy-driven stagflation—combined with higher bond yields and concerns over weakening credit demand—have fuelled expectations of a more hawkish tilt later in the year. This backdrop is weighing on banking shares and the broader Canadian equity benchmark.
Energy producers are poised to open higher as oil extends its gains on supply concerns, though the upside may be contained as prices remain below recent highs. Gold prices edged lower, putting mild pressure on gold miners.
