US sugar futures slipped toward 14.7 US cents per pound, the lowest level since early May, pressured in part by movements in the oil market. Expectations of a possible US–Iran agreement drove crude oil prices lower, reducing the incentive for mills to divert sugarcane into ethanol production and thereby potentially boosting sugar availability.
Additional downward pressure came from stronger exports out of Thailand, the world’s second-largest sugar exporter, which reinforced the picture of ample global supply. Industry data show that Thai sugar exports reached 1.6 million tons between January and April, a 29% increase from the same period a year earlier.
At the same time, the market continued to digest forecasts for greater global output. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) raised its estimate for the 2025/26 global sugar surplus, projecting record production of 182 million tons, up 3.5% from the previous season. The surplus is now seen at 2.2 million tons, compared with a previous forecast of 1.22 million tons, marking a sharp turnaround from the 3.46 million-ton deficit estimated for 2024/25.
