US gasoline futures climbed more than 2% to around $3.10 per gallon in early June, paring recent losses amid persistent uncertainty surrounding a potential US–Iran peace deal that could ease supply pressures. Both parties were reportedly working to revise a draft agreement aimed at extending the ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but there were few indications of meaningful progress.
Adding to the uncertainty, tensions in Lebanon intensified as Israeli advances and clashes with Hezbollah increased the risk of regional spillover. Energy exports from this critical supply hub have been largely halted since the first week of March, pushing global oil inventories to decline at a record pace, according to the IEA.
In parallel, US gasoline inventories fell for a 15th straight week in May, as refineries continued to run at or near full capacity, relying on crude supplied from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). At the same time, effective refinery capacity for motor gasoline declined as refiners shifted production toward distillates in an effort to avert shortages of diesel and jet fuel.
