Arabica coffee futures extended their decline to trade just below $2.50 per pound, the lowest level since November 2024, under pressure from expectations of ample supply. Market attention remains on the Brazilian harvest, where fieldwork is reportedly advancing smoothly under hot, dry conditions, facilitating the flow of new coffee beans and reinforcing forecasts for a bumper crop this season.
In its latest report, the USDA projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop at a record 71.9 million bags, an increase of 14% compared with 2025/26 and above the 2020/21 output. This projection significantly exceeds Conab’s official estimate of 66.7 million bags. The arabica crop alone is forecast at 47.5 million bags, up 25% year-on-year and close to the record levels reached in 2018 and 2020. This would effectively bring to an end a five-year stretch of weaker production driven by adverse weather.
Separately, Rabobank raised its forecast for the global coffee surplus in 2026/27 to 9.5 million bags from a previous estimate of 7.0 million, including 5.9 million bags of arabica.
