FX.co ★ Crude Drops as US-Iran Deal Nears on Hormuz

Crude oil fell 3.2% to $84.88 per barrel as expectations grew that the US and Iran could reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though officials cautioned that a deal was not assured. Prices are down about 6% for the week but remain more than 20% higher since the US and Israel began strikes on Iran on February 28. A Trump administration official estimated an 80% probability that a deal will be signed soon, potentially including the reopening of Hormuz, the lifting of the naval blockade, the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program, and economic incentives contingent on Tehran’s compliance. However, conflicting narratives emerged after Iranian media released a draft proposal outlining different conditions, such as the withdrawal of US forces and reconstruction funding—terms President Trump said did not match what had been agreed. Pakistan’s Prime Minister stated that a final text had been reached, while Iran’s foreign minister said an understanding was closer than ever but urged caution until an agreement is formally concluded.