The United States’ 1-year interest rate projection climbed to 3.6% in the second quarter of 2026, up from 3.1% in the first quarter of the year. The 0.5 percentage point increase marks a notable shift in short-term rate expectations over just one quarter.
The previous projection, recorded in Q1 2026, had indicated a 3.1% level, but the latest reading for Q2 2026 suggests markets or policymakers now anticipate tighter conditions over the coming year. This step up in the projected rate may reflect evolving views on inflation, growth, or broader financial conditions, though no additional details were provided.
The data were last updated on 17 June 2026, confirming the 3.6% figure as the most recent available benchmark for the 1-year US interest rate outlook in the second quarter.
