Arabica coffee futures climbed to nearly $2.78 per pound, their highest level since mid-May, as mounting concerns over Brazil’s harvest volume and bean quality drove prices higher. Persistent rainfall across key growing regions is fueling anxiety among traders about deteriorating quality, harvest disruptions, and delays in fresh supply reaching the market. Forecasts calling for continued rain and an uneven pace of harvesting are further adding to the uncertainty.
At the same time, the market is closely tracking the El Niño weather pattern, with attention shifting beyond the current crop to its potential impact on Brazil’s 2026/27 production. Industry analysts warn that a stronger El Niño could postpone the return of crucial rainfall between September and October, the key flowering window for coffee trees, which could in turn curb the production potential of the next crop.
Underscoring these supply concerns, ICE-certified arabica stocks have dropped to 396,171 bags, a multi-year low and sharply below the 859,389 bags recorded a year earlier. This steep decline in inventories is reinforcing expectations of a tight near-term supply environment.
