FX.co ★ Oil Sinks Toward Pre-War Levels

Crude oil fell below $70 per barrel on Thursday, marking a fourth straight session of losses and nearly erasing all gains made since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, as progress in US-Iran peace talks improved the supply outlook. Growing confidence in a durable agreement has encouraged more tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz with their tracking systems switched on. Supply has also increased across major segments of the market, with buyers now facing a wave of crude offers from the Middle East and other exporting regions, including West Africa. In addition, a temporary US waiver allowing the purchase of already-loaded Iranian oil is expected to further lift available supply. Underscoring the weaker market sentiment, Brent’s prompt spread—a closely watched gauge—flipped into bearish contango on Wednesday for the first time since the conflict began.