FX.co ★ Oil Hovers at Pre-War Levels

Crude oil inched up to $70.70 a barrel on Thursday after three consecutive sessions of losses, but prices remain close to pre-war levels as advancing US-Iran peace efforts brighten the supply outlook. Growing confidence in a durable agreement has prompted more tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz with their tracking systems switched on. Saudi tankers are sailing toward the Ras Tanura terminal to resume Persian Gulf exports for the first time since March. In addition, a temporary US waiver allowing purchases of already-loaded Iranian crude is expected to further lift supplies. With oil now flowing through the strait at its fastest pace since the start of the conflict, market focus is turning to a projected global supply surplus in 2026, spurring Iraq to threaten an exit from OPEC unless its production quota is raised. At the same time, US crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, are running below operational minimums at around 19 million barrels.